It’s gross, but Biden needs to sell-out on immigration.

I know this isn’t going to be a popular opinion. But this needs to be said.

Joe Biden should sell-out on immigration. Yes, he was already the more moderate of the options previously available to Democrats. But he needs to do more to neutralize the President’s coming onslaught on the topic.

The 2020 election will be about two things: the economy and healthcare. This isn’t exactly news to anyone and has been obvious to just about everyone since 2016. COVID-19 is a massive disruption that’ll serve to make those two things even more important to both parties in the election.

On the economy, Donald Trump had a good story to tell. It is a fiction story for the most part: he did not create the strong pre-COVID economy and much of the growth he claims is actually due to the policies started by President Obama. But presidents almost always get more of the blame and credit than they deserve for economic performance and, whether true or not, many will credit the current president for the current economic situation. As David Brooks wrote (back in what now looks like a much simpler time) the Democrats won’t be successful claiming the economy is terrible and “running on economic gloom and class war probably won’t work.” He was right before COVID and he’s still right now.

Biden can’t just claim that Trump is bad on the economy and expect to win. Trump’s handling of the COVID pandemic and his management of the economic stimulus has so far been horrifically bad, but Democrats in Congress aren’t immune from blame there either. The one-time stimulus payment will be nowhere near enough and wage subsidies came too late and are too small. Democrats will pay a part of the price, at least in part due to their earlier arguments against more stimulus for businesses. Even as the president reloads and passes the gun around his administration’s circular firing squad that calls itself a COVID taskforce, he isn’t as vulnerable on the economy as he should be.

On healthcare, Biden’s already moderate position will likely succeed in avoiding scaring the 140 million-plus Americans who, for the most part at least before the pandemic, were fine with their privately provided healthcare plans. With Trump so clearly on the side of insurance companies and effectively on the record trying to ban coverage for people with pre-existing conditions, the Democrats will at least have something pretty good to work with when it comes to politicking the healthcare issue.

On balance, it’s basically an even race on the two main issues likely to dominate the campaign. Economy for Trump, healthcare for Biden. At least that’s what many of the so-called swing voters will see.

So what can be the wedge issue that will win or lose this race?

Donald Trump found it and exploited brilliantly in 2016. It’s immigration. On balance, it is likely what tipped the scales for him with suburban and rural voters. It may (beware right-wing source for this study) be at least part of the reason he outperformed Mitt Romney in some places. Many white swing voters typically turned out in low numbers or voted Democrat before Trump and his immigration extremism. In several studies, the immigration issue shows up as one of the primary reasons that drove those voters to the polls and swung these mostly white and non-college educated voters to his side. They made up at least some of the coalition that gave the President Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

I have been to these states many many times — immigration does matter a great deal there. And it’s not as simple as many who don’t go to these states seem to believe; the people in these places are not racists (not all of them, anyways.) They are people that are susceptible to the message that mass immigration is a primary reason for their feelings of disconnectedness and stagnation. The data are quite clear: immigration likely is not the most likely cause of these issues. Automation, economic globalization, and a greater value placed in the labor market on technical and management skills are all primary culprits. But that isn’t the point. In politics, feelings not facts often drive the debate and the voters. Many democrats don’t seem willing to acknowledge that fact.

Democrats recent focus over the last few years on immigration as a means to signal their non-Trumpiness is the big issue here. The recent push by many of the primary participants (led by Julian Castro) to all together de-criminalize illegal entry to the U.S. is just red meat for Trump in the general election. Biden was wise to avoid supporting it. But Democrats needs to stick to a moderate program overall to win the presidency and purple states’ Senate seats. They should support restrictions wherever they are tolerable and even soften their opposition to the border wall.

Their activist youth, urban leftists, and Hispanic constituencies won’t tolerate an outright shift on the issue. Nor should they. They’re right about this issue for the most part in substance. First, there’s the moral issue. The treatment of immigrants by the Trump administration should be treated as the disgusting travesty that it is. And there’s the basic fact that immigration is good for the economy and is a cultural booster. But Biden has to neutralize Trump’s advantage on the issue and signal some restrictionist tenancies where possible. Because winning this election is more important than being pure.

Promising additional money for border security, instituting e-verify nationally, arguing against certain government services for illegal immigrants, and staying off of the border de-criminalization stuff should be a start. Sticking with the Dreamers and articulating a modest path to citizenship for others that have been in the US for many years or have been in the armed forces is also a worthy and, if pursued carefully, politically palatable goal. Letting the perfect become the enemy of the better and going hardcore on providing public health funding to undocumented immigrants and de-criminalizing their entry will just give Trump’s team what they need to pull off another 2016.

Biden shouldn’t wait to make this point or to moderate his position. He should do this quickly in a major speech and then make the election about healthcare and Trump’s lunacy. If the President is able to make it all about the economy and immigration, it won’t matter what Biden has to say about Trump’s COVID handling.

Many will say that immigration activists and the undocumented have heard this before and that they always get screwed by this need to moderate at election time. And they are right. I hate to be making this argument. But getting this narcissistic moron out of the White House and making sure a Democrat has the ability to craft the boundaries of future immigration policies is more important.